Saturday, May 13, 2006

The editorial page still doesn't get it, but ...

... the Wall Street Journal's science reporter does. Perhaps, finally, the voice of conservative conventional wisdom will come down off their faux-caution pedestal to give us well-meaning "paranoid scientists" the benefit of the doubt.

When reading Sharon Begley's short piece, pay special note to her use of the parlance of probability. This is the means by which climate scientists convince themselves and each other of the potentially disastrous climate change we may be facing. The chance of throwing a 7 in Craps is one in six, but the chance of throwing five in a row is almost one in ten thousand. Likewise, they argue, the climate change observed over the last century could have been due to natural variation, but it is extremely improbable that it was.

(hat tip Andrew Sullivan)

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